Coffee prices poised to come off the boil

The biggest rally in coffee in five years may be ending as the prospect of larger harvests spurs hedge funds to pare bets on higher prices, potentially cutting costs for big coffee sellers such as Kraft Foods and Starbucks.

Supplies of arabica, the world's most-grown coffee, will exceed demand by 6.67 million 60kg bags in the year ending in September 2011, according to ABN Amro Bank and VM Group.

That's the most in nine years and more than six times this season's expected surplus. Speculators cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4 per cent since August 17, regulatory data show.

The rise in coffee coincided with surging food prices as flooding in Canada and drought across Russia and Europe ruined crops.

Wheat as much as doubled since June, contributing to riots over bread costs in Mozambique, and a United Nations price-index of 55 foods advanced to its highest since September 2008 last month.

No such shortages in arabica are forecast, with ABN Amro and VM Group anticipating a 7.4 per cent increase in output to almost 86 million bags, the most since at least the season ended in 2001."You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation," said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Switzerland-based Tiberius Group. "People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule."

Arabica rose as much as 50 per cent since June 7 in New York trading, reaching a 13-year high of US$1.98 a pound on September 8, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia, the second-biggest producer after Brazil, would damage crops. Colombian coffee output gained 55 per cent to 615,000 bags last month, the Bogota-based National Federation of Coffee Growers said this month.

Coffee will average about US$1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, or 20 per cent less than now, according to a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

Speculators accumulated a net-long position of 44,505 contracts by August 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That's almost three times the five-year average and equal to about 750 million kg of coffee. They cut that in two of the last three weeks, to 40,757 contracts by September 7.

The last time prices rose this fast, in a rally ending in March 2005, they fell 38 per cent in the next six months.

Futures on the ICE Futures US exchange are anticipating a decline next year. Contracts from March 2011 are trading at a premium to longer-dated ones, a sign investors may be concerned about near-term supply.

Cheaper beans could help cut costs for companies including Illinois-based Kraft, which raised US prices twice since May on some types of Maxwell House and Yuban coffee.

Starbucks, the world's largest coffee-shop chain, said last month that more spending on commodities, mostly coffee, would add about 4c a share to expenses in the year ending in September 2011.

Shares of Starbucks are 10 per cent higher this year in New York trading, while Kraft gained 13 per cent.

Higher prices for commodities including coffee, oil and natural gas helped strengthen the Colombian peso and Brazilian real against the US dollar in the last 12 months.

The peso rallied 11 per cent against the US currency, and the real is up 5 per cent, trimming returns from dollar-denominated exports.

"The stronger peso takes a little of the shine off," said Rupert Stebbings, head of the Medellin-based unit of Chilean brokerage Celfin Capital.

"It's eroding some of the gains, but this is a coffee price level they couldn't have imagined."

While harvests may expand, supply now is still tight, said Nestor Osorio, the outgoing executive director of the International Coffee Organisation. Declining inventory "makes the markets much more nervous and much more vulnerable," he said.

Stockpiles monitored by ICE Futures US fell 35 per cent this year to 2.01 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade.

This season's arabica surplus will be 1.01 million bags, the smallest amount since the 2007-2008 season, according to ABN Amro and London-based VM Group.

Problems with crops may also spill over into next season.

Colombia's harvest could fall next year after wet weather caused the worst outbreak of a plant-damaging fungus in 25 years, said Jose Sierra, who represents Antioquia, the nation's largest coffee-growing province.

Prices may keep rising as supplies increase because demand will also climb, said Judith-Ganes Chase, a former Merrill Lynch analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York.

Global demand for arabica will expand 0.4 per cent to 79.32 million bags in the 2010-11 season, the highest since at least the 2000-2001 season, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.

Unlike staples such as grains, coffee drinkers may not be willing to pay higher prices, said Raymond Keane, a coffee trader for Balzac Brothers in Charleston, South Carolina. "There will be a point when consumers say: 'This is it'."

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Four cups of coffee a day 'helps women halve their chances of gout'

Four cups of coffee a day can more than halve the risk of gout in women, according to researchers. They found those drinking that amount or more were 57 per cent less likely to suffer the agony of a gout attack than those who drank none. Two to four cups lowered the chances of gout by about 22 per cent but one a day only by three per cent.

Gout has seen a resurgence in the UK in recent years, and now around 250,000 people suffer the painful condition. It is estimated that drugs to treat it cost the NHS more than £6million a year. Once dubbed 'the disease of kings', it affects men more than women and has traditionally been associated with over-indulgence in certain foods and drink.

Recent evidence suggests younger adults in the UK are being affected, partly because of the increase in obesity.
Diet and excess alcohol are trigger factors for the condition, though some people have a genetic predisposition to it.
It develops when uric acid, a natural byproduct, is not disposed of properly by the body.

During an attack, the joint of the big toe swells and becomes so sore that even a sheet resting on it can produce unbearable pain. Attacks can last up to a week.

The latest findings, published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, come from a long-term study of almost 90,000 female nurses in the U.S.Researchers from Boston University and Harvard Medical School tracked the nurses over a 26-year period, monitoring their health and dietary habits. During that time almost 900 of the nurses developed gout. When researchers analysed their beverage intake they found those consuming-large amounts of coffee over a long period of time were least at risk.

The researchers did not know why coffee had the positive effect, but one theory is that it can lead to lower insulin levels in the blood. There is a known link between higher insulin and higher uric acid.

It seems unlikely that caffeine is the reason for coffee's healing powers because decaffeinated brands also lowered the risk to a similar extent. The researchers said: 'Long-term coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk of gout in women.'

The findings support the results of similar research, published in 2007, which showed that coffee appeared to protect both men and women against gout.

Some studies point to gout as an early warning sign of heart disease. Researchers have found middle-aged men with the ailment tend to have higher blood pressure, raised cholesterol and diabetes.

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Arabica Push in the Philippines

Local coffee producers are currently being urged to plant and grow Arabica coffee in an effort to market Philippine coffee beans across the globe.

At present coffee farmers are concentrating on Robusta coffee, the beans of which are stronger in flavour and are the type used by the majority of instant coffee manufacturers, according to Allen Arvin A. Tan. He’s the manager director of Red Cherry N’ Silver Tips Corporation, owners of franchises of The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf in the province of Cebu.

Tan said that his company were encouraging local farmers to start cultivating Arabica coffee following the higher level of demand the coffee type globally. He added that Philippine soil had the capacity to produce a more expensive variety of Arabica beans but that growers have so far been reluctant to switch because of uncertainty over where they could sell them.

In his efforts to promote Arabica coffee and reach out to local producers, Tan’s company has partnered with non-government organisations, Bukidnon province-based Kasilak Foundation, which is coordinating with farmers already growing Arabica coffee beans and expecting their first harvest by the end of 2010. Once collected, these beans will apparently be sent to California where the yield will be tested. Provided the beans achieve positive results, they will then be packaged as Philippine coffee and sold to shops. Tan also revealed that as well as exporting Arabica coffee, it’s hoped that domestic interest in the bean will also be boosted.

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Caffeine and Sleep

Yes, it should be obvious that caffeine does cause you to not sleep…so the obvious solution? Just don’t drink coffee couple hours before bedtime. tudies have demonstrated that caffeine disrupts sleep. When caffeine is consumed immediately before bedtime or continuously throughout the day, sleep onset may be delayed, total sleep time reduced, normal stages of sleep altered, and the quality of sleep decreased.

Caffeine’s effects on sleep appear to be determined by a variety of factors including dose, the time between caffeine ingestion and attempted sleep, and individual differences in sensitivity and/or tolerance to caffeine.

Caffeine-induced sleep disturbance is greatest among individuals who are not regular caffeine users. Although there is evidence for some tolerance to the sleep disrupting effects of caffeine, complete tolerance may not occur and thus habitual caffeine consumers are still vulnerable to caffeine-induced sleep problems.

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Where to get great coffee on I-95

Just in time for this weekend's road-trippers, snowbirds getting an early start or parents driving kids to college comes this list of great java stops on Interstate 95.

It's from Sandra Phillips-Posner and Stan Posner, a couple that knows most nooks and crannies of the exits off that great north-south artery. They're the authors of Drive I-95, which gives an exit-by-exit look at services, lodging, attractions, radar traps and more.

Here are their coffee stop recommendations:

*Willoughby's Coffee and Teas, New Haven, Conn., at Exit 47. Here's what they say: "The 25-year-old local institution is a serious coffee shop which competes in international competitions. The huge plus here is that they roast their own coffee, so four freshly roasted options (along with their house blend) are offered up daily. This is out of a repertoire of about three dozen. There are two dozen or so teas, and they come in tea bags." 258 Church St.

*Ashland Coffee & Tea in Ashland, Va., at Exit 92: "Coffee can be as fun as pufferbelly (a toasted toffee hazelnut latte); to Celtic caboose (an Irish cream cappuccino); racehorse latte (five shots); or a sidetrack (milkshake with espresso). There's a blend-your-own tea bar: chai, Japanese sencha, sunshine rooibos (what the heck is that, your blogster asks?) and more. Besides the hot drinks, there's munchies -- bagels, quesadillas, chicken chile, paninis and desserts. There are comfy couches to stretch out on, books to read, games to play and live music Tuesday through Saturday night and Sunday brunch. Trainspotters will be awestruck by the Amtrak trains whizzing by right outside the shop. "100 N. Railroad Ave.

*Downtown Books and Espresso, Walterboro, S.C., at Exit 53 or 57. "You'll like the location in Walterboro's main street, where you can unwind from your drive browsing through the dozen quirky antiques and collectibles stores. This coffee/bookstore serves up what you would expect: café au lait, espresso, Americano, cappuccino, latte, mocha latte and frozen latte. Some purists would faint, but you can add flavored syrups: vanilla, hazelnut, Irish cream, amaretto, almond, cherry, coconut, raspberry, chocolate sauce (brown or white) or caramel, and they even have sugar-free ones: chocolate, caramel, hazelnut and vanilla. They buy from a local coffee roaster, Island Coffee, who sources his beans from small farms all over the world. For non-coffee drinkers, the tea is Harney & Sons. You can add a sweet and you can, of course, sit and read a book (yes, they do sell Drive I-95 here). Don't miss the used book room." 213 E. Washington St.

The Posners also recommend Wawa coffee. Wawas are convenience stores popular in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic and known for good brews. "You can buy the beans to go," the authors say. " Bring your own mug in and they will refill it," starting at $1.21 for 12 ounces.

Readers, especially those in other regions, please recommend wonderful coffee stops while on the road? I always seem to end up in a long Starbucks line at a crowded rest area, when it would be more fun to get off the interstate and get a jolt of local flavor along with the java.

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Coffee is secret to long life: study

Researchers have claimed that drinking a cup of coffee everyday could be the secret to long life. According to a study, people who drank one to two cups of coffee a day had more elastic arteries than those who drank little or no coffee, reports the Daily Mail.

The subjects of the research were all aged between 65 and 100 and long-term inhabitants of the Greek island of Ikaria. It is known as the ''land of longevity'' and a third of residents reach the age of 90.

University of Athens researchers looked at 485 people with high blood pressure, medically known as hypertension. Christina Chrysohoou, who led the study, said there was conflicting evidence about the effect of coffee drinking on heart health, with some research showing it aggravated high blood pressure.

But drinking coffee is a deeply embedded social tradition in Greek culture, which made it imperative to investigate on this island of ''high life-expectancy'', she said.

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Coffee The Secret To Long Life

Sipping a hot cup of coffee daily could give you more than a healthful lift of energy. The drink helps people live longer by warding off heart disease, a study has revealed. Researchers at the University of Athens have carried out the study and found that drinking a cup of coffee everyday improves elasticity of the arteries, which can stave off heart disease, the 'Daily Mail' reported.

In fact, the researchers have based their findings on an analysis of 485 people with high blood pressure. The subjects of the study were all aged between 65 and 100 and long term inhabitants of Greek island of Ikaria. It is known as the "land of longevity" and a third of residents reach the age of 90.

Dr Christina Chrysohoou, who led the study, said there was conflicting evidence about the effect of coffee drinking on heart health, with some research showing it aggravated high blood pressure.

"But drinking coffee is a deeply embedded social tradition in Greek culture which made it imperative to probe on this island of 'high life-expectancy," she said.

In the study, the subjects' arteries were assessed for distensibility - or elasticity. The 56 per cent who were moderate coffee drinkers consuming between one and two cups a day, had best arterial health, with their blood vessels behaving like those found in younger people.

Their arteries were more elastic than those measured in people who drank little or no coffee. Around one in 10 who drank three or more cups a day had the least elasticity.

Dr Chrysohoou said moderate coffee drinkers consumed 25-50ml of coffee a day. Typically they were drinking strong Greek coffee but other types might work as well.

She suggested that ingredients such as caffeine and antioxidants may partly improve arterial function by increasing the ability to take up nitric oxide, which is impaired in hypertensive patients. The findings have been released at European Society of Cardiology Congress in Stockholm.

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